Free tool
Forecast Calibration Quiz — Greater China
Ten statements about Greater China, each either true or false. Move each slider to how likely you think it is to be true, then reveal your Brier score. Being right matters less than being right by the amount you claimed.
1.China's population fell in 2022, its first recorded decline since 1961.
2.SMIC was added to the US Entity List before Huawei was.
3.China suspended publication of its youth unemployment rate in 2023.
4.Taiwan's Legislative Yuan has 113 seats in total.
5.Hong Kong and Macau both use the Hong Kong dollar as legal tender.
6.China restricted exports of gallium and germanium in 2023.
7.China's exports fell in 2023, the first annual decline since 2016.
8.Taiwan's party-list threshold for at-large seats is 3%.
9.China's consumer price index rose by less than 1% in both 2023 and 2024.
10.The National People's Congress meets twice a year in regular session.
How scoring works
- Brier score is the mean squared error of your probabilities. 0.00 is perfect, 0.25 is what you get by answering 50% to everything, and anything above 0.25 means you would have done better by admitting you did not know.
- Confidence is the point. Saying 90% and being wrong costs far more than saying 60% and being wrong — which is exactly the discipline a prediction market enforces with money.
- A good forecaster is not someone who is always right. It is someone whose 70% claims come true about 70% of the time.
- These statements are matters of public record, chosen because a well-informed reader could plausibly be unsure about them.