Our Story

A prediction market, built out of love for Greater China.

The story behind Trueindex — and the mission we carry every day.

Where it began

Trueindex began in a walk-up apartment in Mong Kok, Hong Kong, in the winter of 1976. A taxi driver's son watched his father study the stock pages at 4 a.m. every day, searching for answers in numbers because he could not read English. That boy grew up believing that ordinary people often see the future first — simply because they are the ones who have to live inside it.

Years later, he watched the same pattern repeat. Pundits spoke with certainty about Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the mainland. Analysts in faraway offices predicted what would happen next. But the people actually living through those questions — the cab drivers, shopkeepers, teachers, and students — had no place to put their own conviction. Their voices were never priced in.

Then came 2019, 2020, and a war in Europe. The world changed overnight, and the gap between official narrative and lived reality became impossible to ignore. He kept asking himself one question:

Why do the people with the most at stake have the fewest ways to be heard?

Why it matters

Most people outside the region do not truly understand China. The language barrier, the propaganda on every side, and the speed of change make it hard to know what is real. But business owners, families, investors, and ordinary citizens all need to make decisions — where to expand, where to send a child to school, whether to stay or leave, what to believe. Without a clear signal, those decisions are made in the dark.

A prediction market is not about money. It is about information. When you trade, you say: this is what I believe will happen, and I am willing to stand behind it. A teacher in Taipei and a hedge fund in London speak the same language — conviction — and the market listens to both. The more people participate, the clearer the picture becomes for everyone.

What we built

For Greater China, no such market existed. Western platforms were slow, clumsily translated, and settled by sources that had never been read in Cantonese or Mandarin. So we built one. Not for traders in Manhattan, but for the uncle in Kowloon, the engineer in Shenzhen, the grandmother in Taipei, and the student in Vancouver who just wants to know if it is finally safe to visit home.

We named it 真策 — 真策. for truth. for the decisions that ordinary people make to shape history. A truthful index of what the people of Greater China actually believe is coming next.

Our promise

We love this region too much to pretend we are neutral about it. But we are ruthlessly neutral about outcomes. We do not trade against our users. We do not massage the numbers. We do not soften a market because it makes someone uncomfortable. Every price is what real people, with real skin in the game, actually believe.

If you have ever loved this part of the world enough to worry about it, welcome. You are already one of us.

Our Mission

To give the world a clearer, more honest signal of what the people of Greater China actually believe — so that business owners, families, and citizens everywhere can make better decisions about the future.

  • Truth over narrative. We publish what the market believes, even when it is inconvenient.
  • Voice over volume. A teacher's conviction counts the same as a hedge fund's — one dollar, one signal.
  • Integrity over growth. We do not trade against our users, and we do not manipulate the price of a single market.
  • Respect over distance. Every question is written and translated by people who actually speak the languages of Greater China.
  • The long view. We are building for the next fifty years of this region, not the next fifty days.

真策 · 真策 · An index of truth for Greater China.